With the NBA All-Star Weekend in the rearview mirror, fantasy basketball owners now face the ever-crucial stretch run; these next few weeks will separate the playoff contenders from the pretenders. The following list is designed to help you capitalize on the current values of players.
*ESPN’s Player Rater, which is referenced in the article, uses standard deviation to assign value to players.
Kawhi Leonard – SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs
Leonard is available in 38% of all Yahoo leagues, yet in ESPN’s leagues that number drops down to 8%. In his past 15 games, ESPN’s Player Rater has him ranked inside the top-50 with a 6.00, which is up almost double from his season rating of 3.40. Although Leonard dramatic increase in numbers is correlated with Manu Ginobili’s absence over the past couple weeks, I still believe Leonard is a valuable asset to your fantasy lineup. When Ginobili returns, Leonard’s minutes should not be affected; he has been in the 25-32 minute range all season with or without Ginobili in the lineup. Leonard’s PPG will almost certainly drop, but if you have Leonard on your team for points, you are in way more trouble than this article can fix. His rebounds, three pointers and steals are what should garner your attention. Over the past ten games, he is averaging almost 7 boards, 1.5 treys and 2 rips a game. Ginobili’s return might cut into his points, but it will not depreciate those other stats.
Kevin Love – PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves
This move is only for people who have a chance to make the playoffs, but think they need one more piece to get them over the hump. Love has not played since breaking a bone in his right hand on January 3rd and it was reported he would be out up to 10 weeks. Well, seven of those weeks have gone by and he is still available in 21% of Yahoo leagues. If he isn’t available on the waiver wire, I would trade for him before news of his impending return starts circulating. Love might be the most versatile, valuable big man in the NBA because of his three-point range. This season his field percentage is way down at 35%, but that is 10 points below his career average and I expect that to climb when he returns. Even if it doesn’t rise drastically, you can live with it since he will be giving you 18 PPG and 14 RPG with one three a game. So if you were looking for a player to put your team over the top, I would trade for Love and hang tough until he comes back; you’ll be happy you did come playoff time.
Paul George – SG/SF, Indiana Pacers
This is a preemptive buying situation. George’s stock probably couldn’t be higher after his triple double against Charlotte prior to the All-Star break. The looming return of fellow forward Danny Granger after the break may have some of George’s owners wanting to pull the trigger on a trade. He is currently ranked in the top-fifteen in ESPN and Yahoo leagues, but if Granger has a couple big games at George’s expense it is worth a try to snatch George. The versatile forward has been a stat stuffer all year (17.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and Granger joining him in the starting lineup (according to Rotoworld) should only help his shooting percentages (42%) and assists (4.0). The future of the Pacers is in the hands of Paul George so you can guarantee the numbers he has put up this year will continue with Granger in the lineup.
Dwight Howard – C, Los Angeles Lakers
This might not come as a surprise to some, but I was on the sell bandwagon for Howard even before his shoulder injury. He hasn’t been the MVP caliber center we saw in Orlando and ESPN and Yahoo rankings show that; ESPN has him ranked 89th overall with a 4.70 Player Rating, while Yahoo places him with an overall rank of 223rd. Yes, he is averaging a double-double with 16 PPG and almost 12 RPG, but his free throw percentage is under 50% (again) and he has not been able to consistently produce at a high level. Howard’s injury, combined with the Lakers falling out of playoff contention and his impending free agency, makes for an unpromising outlook. I can envision him not wanting to cause further damage to his body while coasting through the last couple months. Plus, do you really want to automatically lose one category every week? That is the case with free throw percentage when you have Howard on your roster.
Samuel Dalembert – C, Milwaukee Bucks
During Larry Sanders absence over the past two weeks, Dalembert has really taken advantage of the extra minutes he’s been given. He posted a Player Rating of 7.58 during that span, which was good for 27th overall. Yahoo’s rankings have him at 7th overall during that time, while Dalembert averaged 16.4 PPG, 11.2 RPG and 2.6 BPG. To put those numbers in perspective, Dalembert’s season averages are nine points less (7.4), over five boards less (6.0) and one block less (1.5) per game. All of this indicates Dalembert as a prime sell high candidate. Considering Sanders had tests on his back which all came back negative, his return seems imminent, leaving Dalembert in a limited role. Since you probably drafted him in a later round or picked him up off waivers, flipping him for anyone with starters minutes would be a huge win for your roster.





19 Feb 2013
Posted by Josh Veltrie
