By solely looking at the numbers, it’s no contest. Doug Martin trumps Trent Richardson all across the board. It’s widely expected that Martin will have a higher ADP than Richardson this upcoming season and that’s completely understood on the surface level. However, I don’t believe those surface level numbers tell the whole story.

Martin, along with his corny nickname that he doesn’t care for much himself, has come a long way from relative anonymity at Boise State. His strength and athleticism began to impress onlookers during pre-draft workouts and the buzz emulating from the Buccaneers training camp did not go unnoticed either. He then didn’t waste much time in making a name for himself during his rookie year either. He finished in a tie with Arian Foster as the #2 RB for the season.

I’m sure you remember that monster game Martin had against the Oakland Raiders; the one that he toted the ball 25 times for 251 yards and 4 touchdowns in. It goes without saying that his numbers received an über-boost from that single outing. While I can’t take away that game completely because his talent made him capable of that performance, I’d just like to note how big of a difference that game made. He scored 51 fantasy points on that Sunday, which accounted for more than 20% of his total fantasy points for the season. Maybe it’s the pessimist in me, or perhaps the fact that it was plainly monumental production, but I don’t see him ever coming close to those single-game numbers again. Without that game, his yards-per-carry would fall from 4.6 to a more pedestrian 4.1. Yes, it’s still better than Richardson’s 3.6 yards-per-carry, but I’ll discuss that soon enough. Simple math states that those four touchdowns were also the difference between eight and twelve total touchdowns, which is also a substantial difference. The point I’m trying to make is that his value will undoubtedly be bolstered by one game out of sixteen.

While Martin’s value pointed upward during the preseason, Richardson underwent arthroscopic knee surgery to alleviate some discomfort. He was able to return in time for the season opener and assumed a workhorse role on a less-than-stellar offense. His 702 snaps, which ranked 9th among RBs, is more impressive when you consider the preseason knee surgery, him playing with multiple broken ribs since Week 6, and him ultimately missing Week 17 with an ankle sprain. One conclusion that can be drawn is you need not worry about minor bumps and bruises keeping him off the field. He ultimately mustered an 11th place finish among running backs.

Now let us take a deeper look back into last season’s statistics and remove some outliers:

After just removing the limited games, the gap between Martin and Richardson shrunk considerably. Keep in mind that Richardson was returning from arthroscopic knee surgery to begin the season and then played through a great deal of pain after breaking multiple ribs in Week 6. After removing the best and worst games for each player, Richardson overtook Martin by nearly a full point-per-game. As I mentioned earlier, it’s widely expected that Martin will have a higher ADP than Richardson this upcoming season. While I do expect Martin to live up to his RB1 status, the baseline stats from 2012 indicate Richardson as the better option. You can also expect a healthier Richardson to easily exceed his rookie numbers all around, while Martin will attempt to replicate his own.

P.S. Remember those 400 touches that we dreamed of Ryan Mathews getting last season? Well Norv Turner, who oversaw the prodigious career of LaDainian Tomlinson, is now the Browns offensive coordinator and that could become a reality for Richardson.