A former first round draft pick, Greg Olsen, is still only 28 years of age and just experienced a career season for the Carolina Panthers. Based on that description you would think he would be a hot commodity entering the 2013 fantasy football season, but that is far from the case.

After being unable to reach his potential in four seasons with the Chicago Bears, he has developed nicely with Cam Newton and his career is trending upwards. In 2012, Olsen set career highs in receptions, receiving yards and yards-per-reception.

Newton has averaged over 3900 passing yards in his first two seasons and should be expected to near that mark once again. The Panthers haven’t exactly loaded up the receiving corps for their franchise passer either, which leads me to designate Olsen as a safe bet to receive opportunity similar to last season’s 104 targets. In terms of scoring, Olsen has recorded at least five touchdowns in each of the last five seasons, which is respectable, but also allows room for improvement.

Let’s take a look at how Olsen fared among fellow tight ends last season in terms of fantasy football:

Olsen’s 114 points, which are easily replicable, earned him a 6th place finish at the position. For a historical perspective, 114 points would have merited an average positional rank of 7.2 over the past five seasons. One of the players that finished ahead of him in 2012, Heath Miller, is recovering from a torn ACL. Brandon Myers has switched teams and the Bengals drafted Tyler Eifert in the first round, which doesn’t exactly bode well for Jermaine Gresham’s future. I don’t envision an improvement for any of those three players and prefer Olsen over all of them.

The price tag for Olsen, which you will notice below, is quite attractive as it currently stands; he may actually be the player I have drafted most frequently in either mock drafts or draftmasters this offseason.

As I mentioned earlier, I consider Olsen to be a safe bet to at least match last year’s production. His current ADP places him in the 10th round as the 10th tight end off of the board. I rank him in a tier alongside Dennis Pitta and Kyle Rudolph – two players that are being drafted more than two rounds earlier than Olsen. At the season’s end, you should be perfectly content with Olsen’s performance and who knows, maybe he’ll take another step forward alongside his quarterback. It also doesn’t hurt that he hasn’t missed a game in the past five seasons. All in all, if you either miss out or do not want to pay the price for one of the high-end options, then Greg Olsen may be the guy to target as your starting tight end for 2013 fantasy football season.

If the positional depth in fantasy of right now continues into next season, then standard league size should really move from 12 to 14.

— Kyle Wachtel (@KyleWachtel) May 14, 2013

These offenses around the league create more opportunities than ever before so I think the depth may be here for awhile.

— Kyle Wachtel (@KyleWachtel) May 14, 2013

I followed that up with why I’m advocating the change:

Added depth to 12 team leagues does increase the “luck” involved in fantasy football and diminish skill.

— Kyle Wachtel (@KyleWachtel) May 14, 2013

The presence of skill in fantasy sports is why I have grown to enjoy them so much and it’s also why fantasy sports received an exemption from the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). FanDuel does a great job of explaining the legality of playing fantasy sports for money in their FAQ under “Is FanDuel legal?”.

The newest standard starting requirements for leagues are 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, 1 tight end, 1 flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 defense / special teams, and 1 kicker. For the purpose of this article, we can forget about the DST and kicker positions. In a 12-team league, only 12 quarterbacks, 24 running backs, 36 wide receivers, 12 tight ends and 12 additional flex players start each week. To understand how low that number is, I’ve listed the players that would be considered flex or bench players according to my rankings as of June 3rd, 2013:

Please refrain from focusing on the actual rankings, but instead on the depth of the positions and quality of the players. There’s quarterbacks listed that could throw for 4000 yards and 25+ touchdowns. There’s some running backs that could total 1200+ total yards and some others that could see close to 10 touchdowns. There’s wide receivers with easy 1000 yard upside. The tight end depth doesn’t quite match up with the other positions, but there’s still a couple of them that could rack up 800 yards with a handful of touchdowns.

I’ve done a few draftmasters courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and afterwards I look over my roster and find myself to be quite pleased with my team. Then, I take a look at the league wide rosters and I notice there’s more than a few other teams that seem stacked as well. In fact, there’s not many teams with glaring weaknesses. Most owners were able to “have their cake and eat it too.” Granted, there’s a long way to go before the season begins, but the parity is frustrating for me. Skilled fantasy players can still strengthen their teams and separate from the pack by trading, but I expect many leagues to turn into a crapshoot this season. As a result from the parity, unpredictable variables (such as health) are poised to play a larger role this season than ever before. In order to re-infuse more skill into fantasy football, leagues will have to offset the depth and force owners to go deeper into the player pool.

The simplest way would be to increase the league size to 14 teams, which would be an easy transition redraft leagues. That would open up starting spots for 2 more quarterbacks, 4 more running backs, 6 more wide receivers, 2 more tight ends, and 2 more flex players – a fair enough amount to quell my concerns and probably the most balanced correction. For keeper and dynasty leagues, that method would create a lot of difficulties and perhaps you may have trouble finding two more reliable owners.

Another option would be to add more positions. Even by adding just a second flex, you can do wonders to offset the depth. That change would result in 12 quarterbacks, 24 running backs, 36 wide receivers, 12 tight ends, and 24 flex players. That would be enough to designate all of the above mentioned wide receivers and running backs as starters. Offsetting the quarterback depth is an issue of its own. 2-QB leagues work great for leagues with ten owners, but with only 32 starting quarterbacks, that creates too many roster problems for leagues with more members. In those cases, an offensive player (OP) position may serve best, so that owners can choose to start other positions during Bye Weeks.

Positional depth does fluctuate over time and if you want to boast a cutting-edge league that’s at the forefront of the fantasy football world, then your league can even adjust starting requirements yearly to best account for depth. Of course that’s easier said than done; you would need a league full of pliable and reasonable members to make that work.

All in all, it really doesn’t matter how you go about it, but if you want to maintain the skill involved in fantasy football, you may have to redefine “standard.”

I’ll end with some quick advice for the standard leagues as they presently stand. In auction drafts, you may be able to circumvent the depth problems and possibly use it to your advantage by spending big money on the elite players and then settling with whoever slips through the cracks. Also, although there’s a ton of TE2s, the TE position has the least depth of all. Therefore, the two potentially elite options, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, are made all the more valuable. The injury concerns with Gronkowski actually further inflates Graham’s value into late first round consideration when you consider value based drafting. Gronkowski’s actual value is harder to gauge, but even with the well-documented risk accounted for, his upside when on the field is good enough for him to remain the #2 tight end and worthy of a late-4th round selection.

As a first round draft pick, Wilson merited high expectations. However, his career did not begin on a high note; Wilson lost a fumble in Week 1 on just the second carry of his career and then did not return to the offense for the rest of the game. From thereon, he was relegated to the return game and the #3 running back role behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Brown. After a broken leg ended Brown’s season, Wilson began to see more carries, which is when he was able to flash the immense potential that made him a high draft selection.

Newly appointed as the #2 back, Brown saw extensive playing time as early as Weeks 2 and 3 after Bradshaw suffered a neck injury. He totaled 220 total yards and scored three touchdowns during those two games. Unfortunately, a concussion and the aforementioned broken leg limited him to only six more games, but he did manage to add five more touchdowns during that span while serving as the goal line back. In games that both Wilson and Brown were available, Wilson had only 17 carries compared to 73 for Brown.

Rightfully so, the widespread assumption is that this will be a committee situation in 2013, however the lead running back is still up for grabs. In regards to the Giants starting running back position, Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News quoted Tom Coughlin as saying:

“David Wilson, Andre Brown, Da’Rel Scott. There’s a few guys that will compete for that job.”

Make no mistake about it; this is just a two-horse race between Wilson and Brown. Nevertheless, if you would like to read deeper into his words, Wilson was listed first by Coughlin, which falls in line with the expectation that the 2012 first round draft pick will have the first shot to lead. Even so, during Coughlin’s tenure, the Giants have been no strangers to committees. The following table details the statistics of the Giants’ top-two backs between the years of 2008 and 2011 (when they heavily relied upon an RBBC approach):

You can see that there has been plenty of value in the Giants backups during those years. In fact, the Giants backup finished no worse than RB29. I’ve averaged the above data for the Giants’ #1 RB and #2 RB to see the value more clearly:

Wilson has added weight and focused on his pass protection this offseason, gaining praise from Giants running backs coach, Jerald Ingram. His hard work to become a more complete back may pay-off if he does in fact lead the committee as expected; Wilson could then approach 220 carries, which would equate to 1,100 yards at his career YPC. The problem with Wilson is that Brown, who’s aiming for 22 touchdowns and 1300 rushing yards, will at the very least be locked in as the Giants goal line and short-yardage back – that’s a huge deal because for every extra touchdown that separates the players, the lower-scoring back would need an extra 60 total yards to match. Yes, it’s simple math, but I felt it was notable.

The current ADP data from FantasyPros.com places Wilson as the 19th running back being drafted and 34th overall player, while Brown is currently the 32nd running back off the board and 82nd overall player. That suggests Wilson is being drafted as a RB2 in the late 3rd round and Brown is being drafted as an RB3 in the later portion of the 7th round. Wilson possesses major potential, but in a situation where the pecking order isn’t yet set in stone, his current price tag is inflated a little much for my liking. On the other hand, Brown, who is in line for significant scoring opportunities, has developed into a value pick. I currently have Wilson graded as a fourth round talent (RB20, 40th overall) and Brown on the fifth/sixth round border (RB29, 73rd overall). Please keep in mind that much can change from now until the start of the regular season, but as everything stands now, there’s a greater chance I’ll be seeing Andre Brown on my 2013 fantasy football teams than David Wilson.

The term “freak” is thrown around quite often when people describe players in the National Football League and well, that’s because it takes a special athlete to play in the NFL. Even in a league full of the world’s best athletes, there’s some that are just plain freakier than the others. Without a doubt, Davis is one of those players. Just take a look at his NFL Combine performance and you’ll know why he was drafted 6th overall in 2006:

Some of you may be thinking, “Well if he’s so talented, then why hasn’t he accomplished more during seven seasons in the NFL?” I think that answer is simple: his surroundings. During his time with the 49ers, the team has averaged a 24th place finish among NFL teams in total passing yards. One can only speculate what Davis would have been able to accomplish if he was catching passes from Tom Brady and Drew Brees. I personally think that if he switched places with either Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, he would be talked about in the same breath as those two in terms of fantasy football value. Let’s get back to the numbers though, which I normally let do most of the talking. After Colin Kaepernick became the starting quarterback in 2012, it wasn’t exactly a boon to Davis’ production. In fact, it was the opposite:

Had his production with Alex Smith carried over throughout the second half, Davis would have finished as the 5th ranked tight end in total fantasy points. Instead, he nosedived into a 15th place finish at the position. That’s not exactly promising for his future success and those are the numbers you should be telling all of your league mates. In the playoffs, the combo fared much better:

Even before the unfortunate injury to Crabtree, I would have expected Davis to rebound from his disappointing 2012 season. With Crabtree’s injury now accounted for, I’m expecting even bigger things from Davis. I’d like to preface the following projections by stating that I think the increased targets will outweigh increased focus on Davis by opposing defenses. In the playoffs, Davis averaged 6.3 targets per game, which would translate to 101 over sixteen games; a number that may have been tough to replicate before the Crabtree injury (even though Davis accounted for 129 in 2009), but now seems entirely within reach. The following table details his potential with varying target totals according to his career production:

In each of the last three seasons, the 124.6 fantasy points that could result from 100 targets would have placed him among the top six tight ends. That’s more than enough to justify his current ADP which is detailed below, but considering Davis averaged 890 receiving yards and 8.7 touchdowns from 2009 through 2011, he could easily surpass those numbers and finish closer to the 136.9 fantasy points projected for a 110 target campaign. That total would have been good for at least TE4 in each of the past three seasons. If everything comes together, Davis’ season could even eclipse all the totals on the above chart.

It takes more than intriguing projections to become a target of mine though. There also needs to be value and as of now, Davis has that as well:

In terms of rankings, I place him in a tier alongside Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten; his current ADP places him a full round after those players. If you want to play it safe, then you can go with the veterans who are ages 37 and 31 respectably. However, of the three, Vernon Davis (age 29) has the biggest upside and the best price tag entering the 2013 fantasy football season.

Although Smith did see a 15 target increase in 2012, his catch-rate dropped and he was unable to fully take advantage of the increase. Heading into 2013, Anquan Boldin, who averaged 6.8 targets a game in 2012, is no longer with the Ravens. Dennis Pitta may receive biggest boost in targets resulting from Boldin’s departure – a situation that Denny Carter went into great detail about for The Fake Football. However, at the very least, Smith should also see a small boost. Just one more target per game would raise Smith’s target total to around 125 – I detailed his potential statistics with more targets below. For the sake of being thorough, a decrease in his YPR would likely accompany an increase of targets (many of which may be on shorter routes), but that loss of yards could easily be offset by an increase in his career catch-rate of 48%.

The touchdown totals may seem excessive, but 8 of Smith’s 15 career touchdowns were on plays where the ball travelled at least 20 yards in the air. The vertical aspect of his game is the driving force behind his above average touchdown rate and it should also help him maintain some touchdown consistency from year-to-year. Joe Flacco, who has been widely praised for his ability to throw the deep ball, should continue to take his chances with Smith streaking downfield. The following table displays how those potential statistics from above would have stacked up against wide receivers in recent seasons:

According to FantasyPros.com, his current ADP places him as WR29, which means he’s being drafted as a WR3. At the worst, he doesn’t take another step forward and replicates the numbers from his first two seasons; those stats would be worthy of a low-end WR2 which makes him a good value pick right now. However, if he does assume a bigger role in the offense, which has become exceedingly likely, then he should produce great return on his value with the potential to become a high-end WR2 (see above). Torrey Smith possesses ideal risk versus reward and that is why he’s another target of mine for the 2013 fantasy football season.

*This post will be updated as the draft progresses, so be sure to check back. You can find the entire draft here.

Round 1

After signing up, I received the invitation the next day and was excited to see the draft order. I was slotted in pole position: 1.1. I’m personally among the large contingent that believes Adrian Peterson should be the unanimous first selection and gleefully took him with open arms. Afterwards, I knew I’d have a long time to wait, but that didn’t stop me from circling a couple of targets. Since all MLF10′s are of the PPR variety, I circled Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush. I hope to see at least one of them fall to me, two of them in a perfect world. I now have no choice but to sit and watch as top players are plucked off the board one after another.

Rounds 2 and 3

It felt as if an eternity had passed, but finally my next turn was upon me. Picking from the 1.1 position, I will be tasked with back-to-back picks for the duration of the draft so it’s imperative that I calculate what players may be available after each long gap. Jimmy Graham only made it to pick 2.04, which is a good spot for him, and Reggie Bush was poached right before my pick. Missing out on those two players was a little disappointing, but I still was able to grab Darren Sproles, who I preferred anyway and should be viewed as an RB1 in PPR.

I didn’t have a plan yet for my third pick. No quarterbacks were off the board yet, so I quickly ruled that position out. The wide receiver pool was still very deep. Rob Gronkowski tempted me for a second, but I wasn’t willing to take on that risk with the 3.1 selection. Ultimately, I decided I should solidify my running backs corps because one or two tiers could be swallowed up before my next pick. It wasn’t long before I decided on Steven Jackson, who I would begin to consider as early as the end of the first round in non-PPR. His value is deflated some in PPR, but he still makes for an awesome RB3.

Now that I missed out on Graham, unless Gronkowski slips to the end of the fourth round, I won’t be worrying about tight ends until the late rounds. I’ve already locked down my running backs so I won’t need to worry about that position for a little while either. Right now my plan is to grab a couple of wide receivers back to back. I will also consider Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees if either of them fall, but would really like to shore up my receivers first.

Rounds 4 and 5

By the time my picks rolled around, a total of 17 wide receivers were off the board, yet I was still able to land Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Bowe. Wayne was a no-brainer pick for me; even though he’s now 34 years old, he’s coming off of a 106-1355-5 and even with a drop off, he should remain a very strong WR2 in PPR leagues. I looked around at other positions before selecting Bowe. Gronkowski, Rodgers and Brees were drafted, which made my selection easier. I noticed there were still some RB2′s available (such as Vick Ballard, Chris Ivory, and Lamar Miller), but taking a fourth running back this early would have been a precautionary move that limited the upside of my team. Cam Newton was also still available, but the quarterback depth was still holding strong through four whole rounds. After the short deliberation, I settled on grabbing a second wide receiver like I planned and chose Bowe, who I wrote about here.

Now with three running backs and two wide receivers, I have just five starting positions left to fill: QB1, WR3, TE1, K and DST. I won’t be worrying about the latter two positions for awhile and now that the top tight ends are no longer available, I might as well hold off there as well. If a quarterback run takes place before I’m able to pick, I may have to follow suit. I’d also have to act if one the the RB2s that I mentioned above fall that far. Otherwise, I’d like to grab one more wide receiver. It’ll be a wait-and-see approach for me from here on out.

Rounds 6 and 7

First and foremost, I wanted to resolve my WR3; I felt Steve Johnson was in a tier of his own among the remaining wide receivers and drafted him with no reservations. My second pick of this set was where things got interesting. Four quarterbacks were taken during the gap, including three in the last seven picks. I was awfully tempted to just grab Matthew Stafford, who was my highest ranked QB that remained, however Chris Ivory’s name was impossible to shake out of my head. I assumed he would have been long gone by then and rightfully so. Even though I had three running backs, I just couldn’t pass up the opportunity, especially in a best ball league where I won’t have to make the excruciating decision of which player to start in my flex position.

Now through 7 rounds, I still need a quarterback, but I’m not terribly worried. Five teams have yet to draft QB1s and the top-five quarterbacks still on the board are Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo and Robert Griffin III. Unless someone decides to pull the trigger early on their QB2, I should be able to land one of them when my next picks roll around and fully intend to do so. I’m set at running back with a stable of players that I’d match up versus anyone, so that position can be placed on the back burner. As of now, I won’t rule out drafting two of the above mentioned quarterbacks if available, which would make for a strong best-ball combination. Other options I’ll be looking into are grabbing a WR4 and maybe perhaps taking my first tight end.

Rounds 8 and 9

I finally suffered the wrath of the long layoff between picks. All five of the quarterbacks I had in mind were snatched away from me along with Dennis Pitta, who I wanted to grab as my TE1. I had no choice but to take the punch to the gut and continue fighting. Without a surefire QB1, I’ll have to compensate for the lack of quality with quantity, which isn’t such a bad thing in a best-ball league anyway. I felt it was best to begin hoarding my stable of QB2s now and started off with Ben Roethlisberger. I was eyeing Tavon Austin as my WR4, but he too was no longer available; so I decided that there was no time like the present to finally select a tight end. I ended up choosing Greg Olson, the former first round pick that experienced a career season in 2012 and is still only 28 years old.

All of my starting skill positions are now taken care of and I must shift my attention to building depth. It’s very likely that one of my next two picks with be another quarterback and ultimately I hope to secure three starting quarterbacks to form a somewhat promising carousel. Here’s to hoping that the position won’t become a barren wasteland when I’m finally on the clock again.

Rounds 10 and 11

Only two quarterbacks, Eli Manning and Andy Dalton, were drafted during the gap and thankfully I was able to land the high-upside QB2 that I wanted: Michael Vick. Even though he’s not guaranteed the starting job, there is a lot of potential in that Philadelphia Eagles offense and he was well worth the investment at this point. My second pick was between two more positions of need: wide receiver and tight end. I first gauged the depth at tight end because the smaller pool of players makes it easier to run through the options quickly; I felt there was more than enough TE2s remaining that I could afford wait a little longer, which was relieving because wide receiver depth is at a premium in PPR leagues that have three starting wide receiver spots. I settled on Emmanuel Sanders, who the Pittsburgh Steelers felt compelled to lock down after letting Mike Wallace walk away.

I do plan on drafting at least one more starting quarterback, but I’ll see how long I can hold off there. It’s possible that I’ll have to secure one by the time my next pick rolls around, but in the meantime my plan is to pad my wide receiver depth and grab my second tight end.

Rounds 12 and 13

Okay, so just after I write that I can wait a little longer for my TE2, 7 of the next 22 picks are tight ends. Perhaps using ForensicFantasy.com as my team name and writing live updates about my draft strategy wasn’t the best idea… nevertheless we will forge on with this analysis! I had to select a tight end no matter what now and Fred Davis was the only choice. He’s probably the second best receiver on the Washington Redskins behind Pierre Garcon and if he can stay healthy, there’s a strong chance he finally breaks through. After the Seattle Seahawks DST was taken at 11.07, a small run began that led to a total of 4 DSTs being taken during that gap. I’m in no hurry to worry about that position yet though. I’m also still very comfortable with my group of running backs even though I haven’t selected one in five rounds (make that six rounds now) and there’s still a good number of starting quarterbacks available, so I chose to grab another wide receiver and this time it was Santonio Holmes. Holmes has become a forgotten talent thanks to a combination of his own undoing and poor quarterback play. However, he is still the New York Jets’ best receiver and there’s just not many receiving options on the team.

Once again, I will be keeping an eye on the quarterback depth because I would like to grab a safe option to combine with my current two players. My roster now consists of two quarterbacks, four running backs, five wide receivers and two tight ends. Since there is a plethora of bench spots, I will likely be looking to stock up with potential lottery tickets (which includes handcuffs) during these last seven rounds and hope one or two of them cash.

Rounds 14 and 15

For some reason the email updates from MyFantasyLeague.com stopped working and I fell victim to the technical error. I initially thought that the draft just hit a snag, but after a long wait, I decided to visit the site myself and noticed that I was just granted the New England Patriots DST with an auto-pick after the 12 hour clock expired. I was a little annoyed, but fortunately I was able to make my own selection for Round 15 before the system auto-picked a kicker for my team. I wanted one more wide receiver before closing the book on that position and chose Brandon LaFell. While he doesn’t have much name recognition, he has improved in each of his first three seasons and has a secure hold on the #2 WR role for the Carolina Panthers.

Now with only five rounds left, I definitely plan to fill the roles of QB3, RB5, and a kicker. The remaining two spots will likely consist of a QB4, TE3, or DST2. A quarterback was actually in the cards at this past juncture, but that didn’t go as planned, so hopefully that position holds up over this next gap.

Rounds 16 and 17

I managed to hold out all the way until Round 16, after 24 quarterbacks were off the board, to grab Alex Smith as my QB3 (QB2 if Vick either gets injured or loses the starting job). If you haven’t yet read my thoughts on the Kansas City Chiefs new quarterback, you can find them here. I then decided to take the young St. Louis Rams DST to combine with the Patriots unit that I was blessed with earlier [Note: MyFantasyLeague.com has resolved the email issues].

I’m now set at both wide receiver and DST. I must say that twenty roster spots is an awful lot; so many that I’m actually testing out the impact of having a second kicker to stream throughout the season. The news that Nick Foles may indeed end up with the starting job has also forced me to consider drafting another quarterback. I can’t quite map out my strategy for these last three picks until they roll around and I see who makes it through the gap.

Rounds 18 and 19

I did it. I went back to back kickers and the entire league probably thinks that I’m crazy. Time will tell though. Kickers are extremely erratic and have led to so much frustration for fantasy footballers that Alex Miglio of Pro Football Focus wrote about abolishing the position all together. Since the position still exists in this league, I attempted to use it to my advantage. By selecting Alex Henery and Garrett Hartley at the turn of Rounds 18 and 19, I have essentially guaranteed myself high-end production from the position by way of the best-ball scoring – at least I think I have. I understand this league could come down to a small margin and took a step that I thought could give me the edge.

After twelve days, all that remains is my final selection. The three positions I’m left considering are QB4, TE3 and DST3. TE3 is likely a long shot at this point because the scraps are terribly unappealing. My decision will likely come down to playing it safe at the quarterback position or creating a group of stream-worthy defenses. I’m leaning towards the latter right now.

Round 20

With the final pick of this MFL10′s Draft-Only League, ForensicFantasy.com selects the New York Jets DST. After deliberating the wild card skill position players, I realized after 20 rounds, I’d be drafting a player that is much more likely not to make an impact than hold tangible value. Therefore, I chose to add a third DST, a position that’s very hard to project. Five teams only drafted 1 DST, which already hands them one goose egg during the season. The other six chose 2 DSTs. With my three units bouncing in an out of the starting lineup each week, I hope to finish among the top three and I expect to be the favorite for a first place finish at the position.

Recap

Overall, I’m very content with my team. If I realized that RB2 caliber running backs would slip into the 7th round, then I may have taken a wide receiver like Victor Cruz instead of Steven Jackson. Nevertheless, with Chris Ivory as my RB4, I wouldn’t trade my running backs for anyone else’s. By loading up on running backs and wide receivers like I did, I couldn’t expect my quarterback situation to be sparkling. I’m happy with Ben Roethlisberger leading my committee and having Alex Smith as a safety net though. Michael Vick is obviously the wild card; with just a handful of big weeks from him, my total points at the position should be very competitive. I thought I landed good value with all three of my top wide receivers. I’m very content with the six players that I ended up with there. Tight end is obviously my weakness. I only drafted two of them, so there’s a good chance I’m inconsistent at that position. Greg Olson is a safe bet to near his recent production and Fred Davis really does have a chance for a career season however, so I’m not terribly worried about them. I’m optimistic about the chances of this team and I’m really excited to see how the season unfolds.

My Roster
1.1 – Adrian Peterson RB
2.12 – Darren Sproles RB
3.1 – Steven Jackson RB
4.12 – Reggie Wayne WR
5.1 – Dwayne Bowe WR
6.12 – Steve Johnson WR
7.1 – Christopher Ivory RB
8.12 – Ben Roethlisberger QB
9.1 – Greg Olson TE
10.12 – Michael Vick QB
11.1 – Emmanuel Sanders WR
12.12 – Fred Davis TE
13.1 – Santonio Holmes WR
14.12 – New England Patriots DST (Autopick)
15.1 – Brandon LaFell WR
16.12 – Alex Smith QB
17.1 – St. Louis Rams DST
18.12 – Alex Henery K
19.1 – Garrett Hartley K
20.12 – New York Jets DST

Here are the projected standings courtesy of FantasyPros.com Draft Wizard:

As you should’ve expected, the overall numbers from his rookie season aren’t dazzling. However, he was productive. After Donald Brown underwent arthroscopic knee surgery following the Colts Week 5 upset of the Green Bay Packers, Ballard received the starting nod for the remainder of the season. In those starts, Ballard actually fared a little better:

Those numbers, especially the increase in his YPC, provide a lot more hope for Ballard’s prospects in 2013 and over sixteen-game season would have resulted in:

Even with the low touchdown rate, the 159.2 fantasy points would have placed him as RB16 in 2010, RB13 in 2011 and RB17 in 2012. For reference, his ADP on FantasyFootballCalculator.com currently places him as RB28. Following the Colts playoff game, Bob Kravitz of Indianapolis Star wrote, “the organization seems to have found a workhorse.” The fact that the Colts did not bring in competition at the running back position suggests Kravitz was correct. While Vick Ballard may not carry your fantasy football team on his back, his job as the lead back is safe and he should remain productive, which is more than enough to target him in 2013.

Update (June 12th, 2013): Well, so much for the opportunity that made Vick Ballard a good fantasy football running back. Newly acquired Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to at the very least lead a committee consisting of the two players, but could become a featured running back if he is able to remain healthy.

It’s time to get excited about Chris Ivory’s 2013 fantasy football outlook now that he’s a member of the New York Jets. The talented runner that combines size (5’11.5”, 222 lbs) and speed (4.48 40-yard dash) has battled through injuries and lack of opportunity since college, but his perseverance may finally be rewarded as he gets his chance to shine in the National Football League.

Let’s take a quick look at his production up to this point:

It’s not a large sample size, but the efficiency is sparkling and he has the game film to match it. In order to gauge the type of opportunity he’ll have with the Jets, I went back and recorded the Jets rushing totals under Rex Ryan:

After riding the “Ground-and-Pound” philosophy to two straight AFC Championship appearances, the Jets strayed away from what worked and started to place more responsibility on Mark Sanchez. The offense went from averaging 570.5 carries per season in Rex Ryan’s first two seasons to just 468.5 carries in his second two years. As you can see above, that didn’t work out so well and they missed the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. Heading into 2013, the Jets are poised to return back to the run-heavy offense that brought them success and are gathering the tools to do so.

Ivory is expected to win the starting job with ease and I see no reason that he wouldn’t be afforded the same opportunity as lead runners in the past (see above). To describe the potential of the situation in a not so eloquent manner; Ivory could do a lot of damage with those carries. The following table details the possible statistics I’m talking about:

The above numbers represent the perfect storm; it could happen – Thomas Jones eclipsed those numbers in 2009 – but I wouldn’t be holding my breath. The Jets won’t have Drew Brees opening up the running game and maintaining a 5.1 YPC as a leading running back is a lot to ask for, so I decided to knock down Ivory’s projected YPC to a more ordinary 4.4 and see what resulted:

The totals remained very respectable and the 191.6 total fantasy points would have earned Ivory a 12th place finish in 2012, 7th place finish in 2011, 12th place finish in 2010 and 9th place finish in 2009. Current ADP data places him as RB29, but I imagine that will rise at least a little before the season begins. Chris Ivory must obviously shake the injury bug, but he should be viewed as an RB2 that possesses RB1 potential in the New York Jets offense, which is why he’ll be another target of mine for the 2013 fantasy football season.

I decided to highlight quarterbacks whose ranking deviated at least 4 spots from the ADP. When healthy, Ben Roethlisberger puts up stats worthy of a borderline QB1. He does tend to be a feast or famine player, but is a terrific option hold as your QB2 and stream throughout the season. Alex Smith is entering a great situation with Andy Reid and I went into great depth about his value already. The St. Louis Rams are doing everything they can to allow Sam Bradford to succeed and he has the weapons to become a strong spot-starter. The public seems to have fallen for Carson Palmer. I actually think his “garbage time” prowess is a major factor for him being over-valued right now. He does have Larry Fitzgerald, but the division is brutal and he’s not getting younger or better.

For running backs, I used +/- 5 spots as the threshold for inclusion and went as low as my RB50. Marshawn Lynch’s -5 is mainly just a by-product of me liking other running backs more than him. I do think he settles closer to his 2011 totals than 2012 totals however. I wrote about Reggie Bush’s potential with the Detroit Lions here. I am fully aboard the Chris Ivory train; the Jets should be reverting back to the “ground-and-pound” and he will be leading the way. Vick Ballard may just be an ordinary player, but he has the opportunity. Ah, there’s everyone’s favorite sleeper, Jonathan Stewart. Every year we wait for him to take control of the Carolina Panthers backfield and every year we have been disappointed. I don’t blame anyone for being sheepish, but I’m willing to roll the dice on him once again. Montee Ball with an ADP of 22 right now is ridiculous. With John Fox as the Denver Broncos head coach, you can’t take any playing time for granted until he earns his spot on the depth chart.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis should enter the season as the starter, but his ceiling is so limited that he’d have to fall in my lap. Giovani Bernard’s ADP was much lower than I was expecting. As the first running back chosen in the draft, I figured people would be clamoring to draft him and that isn’t the case… yet. Rashard Mendenall went to Arizona where he was poised to become the starter, but then the Cardinals brought in two more running backs via the draft and who knows what will shake out there in the coming months. Johnathan Franklin is (in my non-draftnik opinion) the best 3-down running back on Green Bay’s roster. I can see him switching roles with Eddie Lacy and becoming the lead guy there. Mikel Leshoure’s -5 is simply a result of me liking Reggie Bush more than most. Bernard Pierce and Michael Bush are two players with serious value as handcuffs. Mike Goodson’s value may still be riding high from before the Chris Ivory trade. It’s unclear whether Jacquizz Rodgers with be used as a situational player or just a backup, but his ADP dropped a little low after the Steven Jackson acquisition. Mr. Ahmad Bradshaw seemed destined for a starting job somewhere, but teams have gone about their business without him in their plans and his opportunity is dwindling.

I chose to raise the threshold to +/- 6 for the lengthy list of receivers, but still capped the players at WR50. I was surprised that the Percy Harvin excitement wasn’t reflected in his ADP. I assumed he would’ve been a lock in the top-10, but perhaps I’ll have to fire up the noise for him soon. Jordy Nelson is a darling of mine for the 2013 season and I explained why here. Calling Larry Fitzgerald’s 2012 campaign a “letdown” would be an understatement. Things will be better in 2013, but I’m not placing him back among the elite fantasy options just because Carson Palmer rolls into town. The division is brutal and for what it’s worth, the Cardinals travel to Seattle in the all-important Week 16. I wondered why Marques Colston seems to always be undervalued for SportsJerks.net. I really liked Reggie Wayne heading into last season and I didn’t think he’d fly under the radar after he rebounded in 2012 – I thought wrong and he has great value once again. Randall Cobb blew up last year and his value has yet to normalize. He’s a strong fantasy player, but a WR2 in my opinion. Michael Crabtree is still riding high from his fantastic ending, but I’d need to see a larger sample size before taking him as my WR1. Steve Smith isn’t ancient just yet – I think there’s still some gas left in the tank – and his ADP may be kept in check by a low touchdown total from last season. Torrey Smith was expected to make a big jump last season, but he never saw the expected increase in targets. Well, Anquan Boldin is now out of town, so there’s a strong chance that he makes the jump this year.

It seems that a lot of people expect Wes Welker to transplant his production from the New England Patriots right into the Denver Broncos offense. The truth is that there is a very slim chance he sees that insane amount of targets. He’s still a strong fantasy player, but his ADP is a little high. I guess I’m higher than the public on Steve Johnson, but the selection of E.J. Manuel does have me worrying more about him. If you haven’t read my comparison of DeSean Jackson and Mike Wallace, you can find it here. I think Eric Decker suffers the most from Welker heading to Denver. While he should still be used heavily in the red zone, I’m just not sure how much action he will receive between-the-twenties. I wish Greg Jennings the best of luck with Christian Ponder because I think he’s going to need a lot of it. Santonio Holmes has become a forgotten receiver. Attitude problems and the miserable play of Mark Sanchez that furthered his attitude problems have sapped the appeal from him. He’s still pretty talented though and is the best receiver on the Jets. Chris Givens started making some noise last season after Danny Amendola was injured, but the new additions to the Rams have quieted his buzz. Kendall Wright put together a decent rookie campaign and the former first round pick will look to improve this year. Brandon LaFell remains the #2 receiver for Cam Newton and set career highs across the board last season. Justin Blackmon’s ADP has yet to see the repercussions of his four-game suspension. It’s not surprising to see that Greg Little is lacking in the love department because he’s a boring possession receiver for the Cleveland Browns, but he hasn’t been too shabby in his first two seasons and Norv Turner will attempt to open up the offense.

Using a threshold of +/- 5 seemed like the way to go for tight ends. For a former first round draft pick that just had a career season, Greg Olson hasn’t gotten a lot of recognition. Matthew Stafford has to be better this season and Brandon Pettigrew’s production should pick up along with him. Brandon Myers became a useful tight end last season, but he won’t be as high of a priority with the New York Giants and is nothing more than a TE2. The Washington Redskins aren’t exactly loaded with receiving options and if Fred Davis stays healthy, he may be their second best option behind Pierre Garcon. Dustin Keller is another Jets player whose value was sapped by his surroundings and he could become a nice TE2 in Miami.

Well that concludes the May ADP Report  - be sure to check out my 2013 fantasy football preseason rankings to see where the rest of the NFL players fall into place.

I drafted according to non-PPR, standard scoring and represented each of the twelve teams myself, allowing only thirty-seconds to make each selection. And so, without further ado, I give to you the results:

(Click The Image To Enlarge)

If you want to secure yourself a RB1, which I recommend doing, then you have to act early and that is why Calvin Johnson was the only non-running back taken in Round 1. Before the news of Rob Gronkowski’s infection troubles, I would have taken him as early as the end of the first and detailed the reasons in a previous article. If the infection becomes a thing of the past at some point before the regular season begins, Gronkowski will then move back into first round consideration.

Team 10 was forced to go with Reggie Bush in the Round 2, which wasn’t a terrible selection, but was a small reach and reflects the problems of taking a non-RB in Round 1. Jimmy Graham is a prime Value Based Drafting candidate, which is why he was selected 16th overall. Before the 2013 NFL Draft, the depth at running back was scant and a larger contingent of running backs would have been pushed up into the second round – that is no longer the case, so the elite wide receivers and elite quarterbacks started getting scooped up in the middle of Round 2. Teams that drafted in the early half of Round 1 were able to grab their RB2s in Round 3 before the drop-off which provided them with a strong advantage.

The second tier of quarterbacks found themselves off the board in Round 3 before the remaining WR1s. Through the first four rounds, 10 of 12 teams had secured two running backs – the remaining teams took their RB2s immediately in Round 5. There were a total of 24 running backs selected within the first 48 picks. The last teams to take a quarterback did so in the Round 7, with the selections of Tony Romo and Robert Griffin III. Those teams were also the first to secure QB2s with Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning in Round 10. The Seattle Seahawks DST and San Francisco 49ers DST went back to back in Round 10. I won’t be shy about reaching for those two DSTs after I fill my other starting positions because they will provide an advantage over my opponent on most weeks. Stephen Gostkowski was drafted in Round 14 as the first kicker; once again, all the team’s needs were filled and Gostkowski is the type of kicker you can roster throughout the entire season and play with confidence. You may also notice that I made sure to reach for a lot of handcuffs after I drafted the lead running back earlier.

Overall, I do think all of the teams are competitive. I plan to write at least one more One-Man Mock Draft and expect the first six rounds to be similar. The second half of the draft will probably experience a lot a movement specifically with the running backs and wide receivers that are jockeying for position on the depth chart. If you have any questions regarding this 2013 fantasy football mock draft, I’d be happy to answer them.

]]> http://forensicfantasy.com/2013/05/fantasy-football-2013-one-man-mock-draft-may/feed/ 0