Comparing 2013 fantasy football preseason rankings to the current average draft position (ADP) data is not only interesting, but it can also be a very helpful tool. It allows me to compare the common perception of players’ values versus my calculations, which I can then use to maximize value during drafts. For example, I like Alex Smith +10 more than his ADP, which means I can most likely wait longer to draft him in serpentine drafts and target him as a high-value player in auctions. This data could also help you find buy-low and sell-high candidates in keeper and dynasty leagues if you’re looking to improve your team in the offseason.

I decided to highlight quarterbacks whose ranking deviated at least 4 spots from the ADP. When healthy, Ben Roethlisberger puts up stats worthy of a borderline QB1. He does tend to be a feast or famine player, but is a terrific option hold as your QB2 and stream throughout the season. Alex Smith is entering a great situation with Andy Reid and I went into great depth about his value already. The St. Louis Rams are doing everything they can to allow Sam Bradford to succeed and he has the weapons to become a strong spot-starter. The public seems to have fallen for Carson Palmer. I actually think his “garbage time” prowess is a major factor for him being over-valued right now. He does have Larry Fitzgerald, but the division is brutal and he’s not getting younger or better.

For running backs, I used +/- 5 spots as the threshold for inclusion and went as low as my RB50. Marshawn Lynch’s -5 is mainly just a by-product of me liking other running backs more than him. I do think he settles closer to his 2011 totals than 2012 totals however. I wrote about Reggie Bush’s potential with the Detroit Lions here. I am fully aboard the Chris Ivory train; the Jets should be reverting back to the “ground-and-pound” and he will be leading the way. Vick Ballard may just be an ordinary player, but he has the opportunity. Ah, there’s everyone’s favorite sleeper, Jonathan Stewart. Every year we wait for him to take control of the Carolina Panthers backfield and every year we have been disappointed. I don’t blame anyone for being sheepish, but I’m willing to roll the dice on him once again. Montee Ball with an ADP of 22 right now is ridiculous. With John Fox as the Denver Broncos head coach, you can’t take any playing time for granted until he earns his spot on the depth chart.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis should enter the season as the starter, but his ceiling is so limited that he’d have to fall in my lap. Giovani Bernard’s ADP was much lower than I was expecting. As the first running back chosen in the draft, I figured people would be clamoring to draft him and that isn’t the case… yet. Rashard Mendenall went to Arizona where he was poised to become the starter, but then the Cardinals brought in two more running backs via the draft and who knows what will shake out there in the coming months. Johnathan Franklin is (in my non-draftnik opinion) the best 3-down running back on Green Bay’s roster. I can see him switching roles with Eddie Lacy and becoming the lead guy there. Mikel Leshoure’s -5 is simply a result of me liking Reggie Bush more than most. Bernard Pierce and Michael Bush are two players with serious value as handcuffs. Mike Goodson’s value may still be riding high from before the Chris Ivory trade. It’s unclear whether Jacquizz Rodgers with be used as a situational player or just a backup, but his ADP dropped a little low after the Steven Jackson acquisition. Mr. Ahmad Bradshaw seemed destined for a starting job somewhere, but teams have gone about their business without him in their plans and his opportunity is dwindling.

I chose to raise the threshold to +/- 6 for the lengthy list of receivers, but still capped the players at WR50. I was surprised that the Percy Harvin excitement wasn’t reflected in his ADP. I assumed he would’ve been a lock in the top-10, but perhaps I’ll have to fire up the noise for him soon. Jordy Nelson is a darling of mine for the 2013 season and I explained why here. Calling Larry Fitzgerald’s 2012 campaign a “letdown” would be an understatement. Things will be better in 2013, but I’m not placing him back among the elite fantasy options just because Carson Palmer rolls into town. The division is brutal and for what it’s worth, the Cardinals travel to Seattle in the all-important Week 16. I wondered why Marques Colston seems to always be undervalued for SportsJerks.net. I really liked Reggie Wayne heading into last season and I didn’t think he’d fly under the radar after he rebounded in 2012 - I thought wrong and he has great value once again. Randall Cobb blew up last year and his value has yet to normalize. He’s a strong fantasy player, but a WR2 in my opinion. Michael Crabtree is still riding high from his fantastic ending, but I’d need to see a larger sample size before taking him as my WR1. Steve Smith isn’t ancient just yet - I think there’s still some gas left in the tank - and his ADP may be kept in check by a low touchdown total from last season. Torrey Smith was expected to make a big jump last season, but he never saw the expected increase in targets. Well, Anquan Boldin is now out of town, so there’s a strong chance that he makes the jump this year.

It seems that a lot of people expect Wes Welker to transplant his production from the New England Patriots right into the Denver Broncos offense. The truth is that there is a very slim chance he sees that insane amount of targets. He’s still a strong fantasy player, but his ADP is a little high. I guess I’m higher than the public on Steve Johnson, but the selection of E.J. Manuel does have me worrying more about him. If you haven’t read my comparison of DeSean Jackson and Mike Wallace, you can find it here. I think Eric Decker suffers the most from Welker heading to Denver. While he should still be used heavily in the red zone, I’m just not sure how much action he will receive between-the-twenties. I wish Greg Jennings the best of luck with Christian Ponder because I think he’s going to need a lot of it. Santonio Holmes has become a forgotten receiver. Attitude problems and the miserable play of Mark Sanchez that furthered his attitude problems have sapped the appeal from him. He’s still pretty talented though and is the best receiver on the Jets. Chris Givens started making some noise last season after Danny Amendola was injured, but the new additions to the Rams have quieted his buzz. Kendall Wright put together a decent rookie campaign and the former first round pick will look to improve this year. Brandon LaFell remains the #2 receiver for Cam Newton and set career highs across the board last season. Justin Blackmon’s ADP has yet to see the repercussions of his four-game suspension. It’s not surprising to see that Greg Little is lacking in the love department because he’s a boring possession receiver for the Cleveland Browns, but he hasn’t been too shabby in his first two seasons and Norv Turner will attempt to open up the offense.

Using a threshold of +/- 5 seemed like the way to go for tight ends. For a former first round draft pick that just had a career season, Greg Olson hasn’t gotten a lot of recognition. Matthew Stafford has to be better this season and Brandon Pettigrew’s production should pick up along with him. Brandon Myers became a useful tight end last season, but he won’t be as high of a priority with the New York Giants and is nothing more than a TE2. The Washington Redskins aren’t exactly loaded with receiving options and if Fred Davis stays healthy, he may be their second best option behind Pierre Garcon. Dustin Keller is another Jets player whose value was sapped by his surroundings and he could become a nice TE2 in Miami.

Well that concludes the May ADP Report - be sure to check out my 2013 fantasy football preseason rankings to see where the rest of the NFL players fall into place.