After being drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in the second round of the 2011 NFL Draft, Torrey Smith wasted no time in becoming a major part of the offense. In just two seasons, he has already racked up nearly 1700 yards and scored 15 touchdowns. With those two years under his belt and a potentially increased role on the horizon, just how valuable will he be for the 2013 fantasy football season?
Although Smith did see a 15 target increase in 2012, his catch-rate dropped and he was unable to fully take advantage of the increase. Heading into 2013, Anquan Boldin, who averaged 6.8 targets a game in 2012, is no longer with the Ravens. Dennis Pitta may receive biggest boost in targets resulting from Boldin’s departure – a situation that Denny Carter went into great detail about for The Fake Football. However, at the very least, Smith should also see a small boost. Just one more target per game would raise Smith’s target total to around 125 – I detailed his potential statistics with more targets below. For the sake of being thorough, a decrease in his YPR would likely accompany an increase of targets (many of which may be on shorter routes), but that loss of yards could easily be offset by an increase in his career catch-rate of 48%.
The touchdown totals may seem excessive, but 8 of Smith’s 15 career touchdowns were on plays where the ball travelled at least 20 yards in the air. The vertical aspect of his game is the driving force behind his above average touchdown rate and it should also help him maintain some touchdown consistency from year-to-year. Joe Flacco, who has been widely praised for his ability to throw the deep ball, should continue to take his chances with Smith streaking downfield. The following table displays how those potential statistics from above would have stacked up against wide receivers in recent seasons:
According to FantasyPros.com, his current ADP places him as WR29, which means he’s being drafted as a WR3. At the worst, he doesn’t take another step forward and replicates the numbers from his first two seasons; those stats would be worthy of a low-end WR2 which makes him a good value pick right now. However, if he does assume a bigger role in the offense, which has become exceedingly likely, then he should produce great return on his value with the potential to become a high-end WR2 (see above). Torrey Smith possesses ideal risk versus reward and that is why he’s another target of mine for the 2013 fantasy football season.