The effectiveness of running backs is often measured by yards-per-carry (YPC); the logic behind placing a high degree of significance on that statistic is simple: it’s easy to compare and the goal of every running back is to pick up as many yards as they can each time they are handed the ball. In the history of the National Football League, no running back has been a more effective rusher than Jamaal Charles. After being selected by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft, Charles has amassed 4536 rushing yards on 784 carries - his 5.8 YPC is the current NFL record for running backs. With that being said, just how good can Jamaal Charles be during the 2013 fantasy football season?

Charles warmed up as a sophomore running back, eclipsing 1300 total yards, and then became a household name in fantasy circles after his 1935 total yards in 2010. Prior to the 2011 season, his ADP of 5.92 on MyFantasyLeague.com reflected his potential. Unfortunately for the owners that paid the heavy price tag, Charles suffered a season ending ACL tear in just Week 2. With the knee injury weighing down his ADP to 25.08 in 2012, he proved to be a bargain after regaining form and setting a career high in rushing yards. Entering the 2013 season, Charles now has a new head coach and an ADP that currently sits at 8.78 as the 7th running back being drafted. We already know what Charles has been able to accomplish so far, but how will he fit in with Andy Reid?

Over the past seven years, featured running backs under Reid have posted 15.6 FPPG, which translates to 250 fantasy points over a full, sixteen-game season. That total, which was deflated due to LeSean McCoy’s injury riddled 2012 campaign, would have earned a top-four finish among running backs in each of the past six seasons. For fantasy football purposes, the numbers indicate that Reid has been a running back friendly coach. While the carry totals may be modest, they are more than enough for the ultra-efficient Charles. Reid, who also heavily utilizes his running backs in the passing game as indicated by the reception totals, watched past film of the Chiefs and had the following to say about Charles’ receiving skills:

I did that just to see how [Charles] handled the quick passing game or the deep passing game from the wide receiver position. He handled it well. So that gives you another dimension that you know is in there that he wasn’t utilized … they just didn’t use it in him the last couple years.

You can expect Reid to incorporate Charles into the passing game just as he has done with his past featured running backs. And now that we have an idea how Charles will fit with Reid, we can hash out some projections based on his prospective opportunity and past production:

The above projections are the ceiling for Charles if everything falls into place and would have earned him a top-two finish among running backs in every season since 2007. However, let’s adjust those numbers by using Charles’ YPC from last season and the more modest 3.8 receptions per game that LeSean McCoy averaged under Reid over the past two seasons: