30 Apr 2013
Posted by Kyle Wachtel 
The 2013 NFL Draft was over in a blink of the eye and now fantasy football enthusiasts can begin to gauge the fantasy football values of the new rookie class. Last year, impact rookies were bountiful with Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson all becoming fantasy darlings. As you’ve probably heard a thousand times before, this 2014 class is not expected to meet the high bar set in 2012. However, even though these incoming prospects lack the luster of their predecessors, there is still some enterprising potential among them.
*This list of impact rookies for the 2013 fantasy football season will be updated periodically throughout the NFL preseason. If you would like to know about a player that I did not include, please leave a comment or contact me on Twitter.
Rookie Quarterbacks (Player - Team; Expected Spot On Depth Chart)
Geno Smith - New York Jets; QB1
At this moment, I fully expect Geno Smith to be the Week 1 starter for the New York Jets. However, the offensive game plan likely revert back to the smash-mouth approach utilized during the Jets’ AFC Championship runs even though Smith has superior arm talent to Mark Sanchez. The receiving corps is not the barren wasteland that I’ve seen many people denote it to be; Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Kerley are both starting caliber receivers and Stephen Hill has the raw athleticism to be a major factor if he can improve his hands and route running. With that said, they could still use another weapon, specifically a tight end after the departure of Dustin Keller. Smith will likely find most of his success on play-action this season and can also be expected to use his legs more than he did in college since every team in the NFL wants to incorporate more of the read-option. All in all, the Jets defense will keep the team in most games and Smith will not be asked to do a whole lot, which is why I see him only as a QB3 in 2013.
E.J. Manuel - Buffalo Bills; QB2
Understandably, there may not be another draft selection that has received the scrutiny of Manuel to the Bills. Manuel is very far from a polished passer and was not a prolific scrambler during his time at Florida State – in fact, his career rushing yards and yards-per-carry fall short of the collegiate careers of Andy Dalton and Colt McCoy. The Bills have not ruled out Manuel as the Week 1 starter; Doug Marrone was quoted saying “He is now thrown into the mix of competition.” They have also infused a lot of speed on their roster over the past few off-seasons with C.J. Spiller, T.J. Graham, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. As a result, they are believed to be considering an offense highly dependent on the read-option. I believe Kevin Kolb will open the season as the starting quarterback and don’t envision Manuel will make a significant fantasy impact if/when he is handed the reins.
Tyler Wilson - Oakland Raiders; QB2
The Oakland Raiders are a mess. Matt Flynn was brought in to play quarterback, but I don’t know one person that believes he is the future. I fully expect them to spend a premium draft pick on a quarterback in the 2014 NFL Draft, but would not be surprised to see Tyler Wilson supplant Flynn during 2013. No matter who the starting quarterback is in Oakland, they will not be a recommended option.
Rookie Running Backs (Player - Team; Expected Spot On Depth Chart)
Le’Veon Bell - Pittsburgh Steelers; RB1
Quite frankly, I was not enthused will Bell as a prospect. He exhibits great size, but was never considered a bulldozer at Michigan State - a trait which you would expect of a 230-pound running back. The Steelers starting position was a prime opportunity for whoever was given the role and this is an instance where opportunity precedes talent. Bell should be viewed as a very safe flex play as the starter in Pittsburgh.
Montee Ball - Denver Broncos; RB1
The NCAAs all-time leader in rushing touchdowns is headed to a premier destination. Peyton Manning is an alchemist; he turns lead into gold. Knowshon Moreno’s career was resuscitated in 2012 and as a rookie, Joseph Addai recorded 1406 total yards and 8 touchdowns under the direction of Manning. Ball is expected to rise atop the depth chart before the season begins and as with Le’Veon Bell, this is another instance where opportunity precedes talent; Ball would be in line to get enough touches to merit RB2/Flex consideration.
Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin - Green Bay Packers; RB1 and RB2
With a quarterback as good as Aaron Rodgers, you would expect the Packers to be among the NFL’s least run-reliant offenses, however Rodger’s astounding efficiency as a passer has allowed the Packers to run the ball more often than many would think. In 2012, they finished 16th overall with 433 carries, which means there is very reasonable value as a Packers running back. Just as I began to get excited for the prospects of Eddie Lacy’s rookie year, the Packers selected Franklin, who is potentially the better three-down player. The best-case scenario for Lacy is that he is heavily utilized on early downs and at the goal line. I can also see him being used to grind out the clock at the end of games. His ceiling for 2012 is becoming an RB2, but a high-end flex is more likely. Since Franklin was drafted after Lacy, he will most likely be placed behind Lacy on the depth chart. However, he could very well excel in a third-down role and find himself atop the depth chart at some point. Franklin would then become a strong flex play, whose scoring opportunities would be limited by the aforementioned Lacy.
Giovani Bernard - Cincinnati Bengals; RB2
BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a reliable, but a bland and ordinary talent. Bernard is in line to enter the season in a change-of-pace role as a third-down back. As the season goes along, the 37th pick of the 2013 NFL Draft is expected to earn a bigger role in the offense. He seems to be a year away from a potentially major impact in fantasy football; his ceiling may be limited to that of a flex option as part of a committee in 2013.
Joseph Randle - Dallas Cowboys; RB2
No one has ever described DeMarco Murray as an ironman and any running back playing behind an injury-maligned starter should be carefully monitored. Randle is almost assured of becoming the #2 RB in Dallas and in the event of another injury to Murray, he would instantaneously ascend into the RB2 range. He is a very important handcuff for Murray owners and would be a nice lottery ticket on any bench.
Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington - Arizona Cardinals; RB2 and RB3
In 2012, running backs for the Arizona Cardinals averaged a putrid 3.4 YPC. They attempted to improve the offensive line by selecting a guard, Johnathan Cooper, with the 13th overall selection in this year’s draft. Neither the newly acquired Rashard Mendenhall, nor Ryan Williams are remarkable talents, so the addition of another runner was not surprising. After drafting Taylor in the 5th round, they must have deemed the value of Ellington to be too good to pass up in the 6th round. Williams’ value is no longer existent. Mendenhall would still seem to have the inside track to the starting job, however a combination of Taylor and Ellington would likely be more effective. This is a running back situation to monitor as the hierarchy could change multiple times throughout the preseason and regular season. Ellington should be viewed as the player with the most potential, but whoever earns the lead role can be used as a flex option in 2013.
Zac Stacy - St. Louis Rams; RB3
The departure of Steven Jackson left the Rams with two similarly smaller running backs and they were expected to add a player to fulfill a short-yardage role. Heading into the season, the running back to own in St. Louis is still between Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson. However, neither of them has proven to be complete running backs and for Stacy, who at 5’8” and 216 pounds recorded strong measurables (4.55 40-yard-dash, 27 bench reps, 6.7 3-cone-drill) at the NFL combine, earning the lead role at some point is not out of the question.
