Dominos are falling in Kansas City; after trading for Alex Smith, the Chiefs came to terms on a five-year contract with Dwayne Bowe, franchise tagged Brandon Albert and even made Dustin Colquitt the highest paid punter in the NFL. I discussed the 2013 fantasy football value of Smith in a recent article, but what is the draft outlook of Dwayne Bowe?
After being drafted in the first round of the 2007 NFL Draft, Bowe did not waste time establishing himself. He led all rookie wide receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns – instantly becoming a commodity in fantasy football. He then went on to eclipse the 1000-yard threshold in three of the next five seasons. Bowe currently ranks first in the Chiefs record books in receiving-yards-per-game (65.1) and second in receptions-per-game (4.7) to Tony Gonzalez. All of his accomplishments have been earned with marginal talent at the quarterback position:
I think it’s safe to say that Alex Smith is an upgrade at quarterback and the new offensive game plan under Andy Reid should also be beneficial to Bowe’s production. The following table compares the recent passing totals of Reid’s Eagles’ offenses to the recent Chiefs’ offenses:
I expect Dwayne Bowe to re-emerge and flourish now that he is finally in an environment conducive to success. In order to quantify his fantasy football value, let’s take a more fantasy centric look at his career:
Bowe has played a full sixteen-game season in four of his six NFL seasons. In those seasons, he has finished no worse than the 23rd receiver in total fantasy points. His best year was 2010, when ended he finished 2nd at the position and earned the designation of All-Pro Second Team. On Twitter, John Paulsen of 4for4.com noted that Bowe ranks 17th among wide receivers in FPPG (9.6) over the past three years. Those 9.6 FPPG translated over a full season would have tied him with Randall Cobb and Mike Williams for 17th among receivers in 2012. The following table provides a visual of those three-year numbers:
There should be ample opportunity for Bowe to reach and perhaps surpass those numbers, especially the reception and yardage totals. According to FFGator.com, he is currently the 23rd receiver off of the draft board with an ADP of 57.7. I currently have Dwayne Bowe ranked 16th in my 2013 Wide Receiver Rankings and will be targeting him as a value pick in fantasy football.