When determining a player’s value in fantasy football, you have to weigh perceived risk versus potential reward. Thanks to Jim Day of Pro Football Focus and FFGator.com, we have some early Average Draft Positions to examine. Darren McFadden’s ADP currently sits at 27.4. I’d like to point out that those ADPs were calculated before the recent quotes from Raiders’ new offensive coordinator, Greg Olson, in which he basically said the offense would cater to McFadden’s strengths. Well that sounds great, but the goal of every coordinator should be to design game plans that accentuate their players’ strengths. I know it doesn’t always work out that way, but nobody thought the zone-blocking-scheme was going to doom McFadden at first. He did look really good in the 2012 preseason. It wasn’t until we all saw him struggle to earn a three-yard gain for the season’s entirety that everyone realized it wasn’t a perfect fit.

When he was on the field this past year, McFadden’s production was so awful that his fantasy football owners would have preferred Marcel Reece to keep the starting job. Even so, I still believe McFadden is talented enough to finish as a high-end RB1. Perhaps he does find his mojo back now that the ZBS has disappeared. Oh, and he’s in a contract year too. The stars are aligned for a season to remember. We’ll be telling our grandchildren about how we drafted Darren McFadden in our 2013 fantasy football leagues! That is the peak potential.

The reality is that every time Winter rolls around, the common thought is McFadden is in no way worth the risk. Slowly, but surely that thought morphs into injury proneness being a bunch of nothingness and maybe this is the year he finally stays healthy. His ADP then continues to rise through all of draft season, but people remain enticed at the thought of drafting a potential top-five running back in the second round. Let’s look at his career statistics for a moment:

The facts are that Darren McFadden has now been in the NFL for five seasons. He has never played more than 13 games in a season and he averages 5 missed games every season. You read that correctly; he averages 5 missed games every season. He has only eclipsed 650 rushing yards once in his entire career. His career yards-per-carry of 4.3 is more ordinary than his persona would leave you to believe. Unless every member of your league is averse to drafting McFadden, you will have to spend a premium draft pick on him. Are you really willing to place your aspirations of a fantasy football championship on his shoulders?

For myself, the risk of drafting McFadden crushes the reward. If you’d like to take the leap of faith and it works out, well that’s great for you. On the other hand, you will have only yourself to blame if it doesn’t work out so well. So please don’t go around complaining if Darren McFadden sprains his ankle in Week 2.